I have found very little in the last month and a half to add
to previous posts. CO2 continues its
alarming rise, to what will in all likelihood be more than 406 ppm (yearly
average) by end of year, and while global temperatures have ended their string
of monthly records, we are still on course for a 1.2 degree C rise since 1850, about
0.3 degrees of it in the last 2 ½ years.
The big news in the Arctic (and Antarctic) is an unprecedented low in
sea ice extent/area, plus record high temps in the Arctic in December – but that
continues a smaller trend evident in most of the first half of 2016.
Meanwhile, on the computing side, relatively little
real-world innovation happened this year.
In-memory computing continued its steady rise in both performance and
applicability, with smaller companies taking more of a lead as compared to
2015. While blockchain technology and
quantum computing made a big news splash early in the year, careful reading of “use
cases” shows that real-world implementations of blockchain are thin on the
ground or non-existent, as most companies try to figure out how best to make it
work, while quantum computing is clearly far from real-world usefulness as of
yet.
The big news in both areas, alas, is therefore the election
of Donald Trump as President. In the climate
change area, as I predicted, he is proving to be an absolute disaster, with
nominees for at least six posts that are climate change deniers with every
incentive to make the American government a hindrance rather than a help in
efforts to change “business as usual.”
In the computing area, we see the spectacle of some large
computing firms offering their services in public to Trump, an unprecedented
move based on the calculation that while being seen as cooperative may not
bring any benefits, failure to act in this way may cause serious problems for the
firm. Thus, we see Silicon Valley execs
whose workforces are not at all enthused about Trump acting in meetings with
him as if he offers new business opportunities, and IBM’s CEO announcing ways
in which IBM technology can aid in achieving his presumed goals.
It may seem odd to give such prominence to the personality
of the President in assessing either climate change or the computing industry. The fact is, however, that all of the moves I
have cited are unprecedented, and derive from Trump’s personality. To fail to consider this in assessing the likely
long-run effects of the “new abnormal” in both the sustainability field and the
computing industry is, imho, a failure to be an effective computer industry
analyst. And while no one likes a perpetually
downbeat analyst, one that continually predicts rosy outcomes in this type of
situation is simply not worth listening to.
I look back on 2016, and I see little that is permanent to
celebrate – although the willingness of the media to begin to report on and
accept climate change is, however temporary, worth noting. I wish I could say that there is hope for
better things in 2017; but as far as I can see, there isn’t.
