Disclaimer: I am now retired, and am therefore no longer
an expert on anything. This blog post
presents only my opinions, and anything in it should not be relied on.
Two new factoids:
1.
The CO2
data from Mauna Loa are now showing that CO2 levels (averaged over the last ½
year plus a projection of the next six months) reached 410 ppm in Nov. This date is a little more than three years
since that measure reached 400.
2.
The estimate of carbon emissions – flat for
years 2014-2016 – rose by 1.6% in 2017 and is projected to rise by 2.7% in
2018. Primary increases were from China
and India, but the US also rose – only Europe among major contributors
decreased. Although, as I have noted,
this measure may well be flawed as an indicator of underlying carbon emissions
rise, the very fact that it can now be monitored on a monthly basis suggests
that some of the flaws have been worked out.
It is, therefore, less likely to be an underestimate of carbon
emissions, and hence the rate of rise is more likely to be correct or a slight
overestimate.
Let me reiterate the conclusion in my Oct. addendum more forcefully: I am told that I have, on average, 8 ½ years
more to live. By the time I am dead, CO2
seems all but certain to reach 430 ppm, and may well be approaching 440
ppm. By 2050, if things simply continue
linearly instead of accelerating the way they have done for the past 60 years,
we will be at 500 ppm, nearly doubling CO2 at the start of the Industrial
Revolution. This bakes in a global
temperature rise since then of 4 degrees Centigrade, or 7 degrees Fahrenheit in
the long run, according to James Hansen and others, with at least 2 degrees C since
the IR in the short run, or another 2 degrees F from the way things are right
now.
Another point: There
is a clear line between recent increases in carbon emissions and the
administration of President Donald Trump.
The lack of support from that administration is clearly linked not only
to US increases (via a strong rise in US oil/shale/natural gas generation) but
also to decreased pressure on India and China, both in unilateral relations and
in the meetings regarding implementation of the Paris Agreement.
