Tuesday, June 19, 2012

Hey, Was I Actually Right About HP and Oracle?

HP's outlook won't be all that bad only because analysts are expecting Armageddon. – Larry Dignan, CNET, Nov. 21, 2011
Oracle Corp. /quotes/zigman/76584/quotes/nls/orcl ORCL +3.54% will likely beat analysts' estimates when it reports its fourth-quarter on Thursday. But investors will probably take their cue from what's expected to be a strong outlook … Big companies are investing heavily in Oracle's new generation of database software, as well as hardware it introduced since acquiring Sun Microsystems last year. – Steven Jones, MarketWatch, June 21, 2011.

I will stick out my neck and predict that HP will not implode over the next 3 years, and it will not fall behind IBM in revenues either, barring a truly epochal acquisition by IBM. – Wayne Kernochan, Infostructure Associates, blog post, May 17, 2011
.Sun’s UltraSPARC architecture has already shown signs of falling behind, and it appears that Oracle is not committing the necessary resources or expertise to play catch-up with IBM and Intel. … Exadata  … unless it is acquired by a leading-edge top-three-in-technology processor technology vendor such as Intel or IBM, … will start falling behind in scalability … It seems likely that within the next 3 years, Oracle will either load additional pricing on its locked-in customers to support another acquired platform, or deliver less and less relative price/performance … It may make sense for Oracle’s customers to move to a vendor such as IBM even if it will be painful in the short term. If my outlook for Oracle’s pricing and technology over the next 3 years is correct, the cost inefficiencies compared to others won’t get better, they’ll get worse; and the degree of database lock-in will stay the same or worsen, too, as additional Oracle implementations occur. – Wayne Kernochan, Pund-IT Review, Sept. 2011

Oracle’s hardware business will continue to look troubled while the Sun portion continues to shrink – Erik Hessedahl, All Things D, June 18, 2012
Oracle hardware revenues decrease by 10% in constant currency over 9 months, total revenues up about 3% for fiscal 2012 and 1% for 4Q12 - Oracle earnings press releases Mar/Jun 2012

Desktop units were up 5%, revenue down 3% yty for 2Q12, revenue run rate for fiscal 2012 about $121B – HP earnings press release 5/23/12
Revenue flat for 1Q12 yty, revenue run rate for fiscal 2012 about $99B – IBM earnings press release, 4/17/12

1 comment:

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