Climate Change Fall 2018: A Personal Addendum

Disclaimer:  I am now retired, and am therefore no longer an expert on anything.  This blog post presents only my opinions, and anything in it should not be relied on.

One thing I did not note in my recent climate-change update:  The CO2 data from Mauna Loa are now showing that CO2 levels (averaged over the last ½ year plus a projection of the next six months) reached 409 ppm in Sept.  This is about three years since that measure reached 400 ppm, and is less than 6 months before it reaches 410 ppm.

I am told that I have, on average, 8  ½ years more to live.  By the time I am dead, CO2 will in all likelihood have reached 430 ppm, and may well be approaching 440 ppm.  By 2050, if things simply continue linearly instead of accelerating the way they have done for the past 60 years, we will be at 500 ppm, nearly doubling CO2 at the start of the Industrial Revolution.  This bakes in a global temperature rise since then of 4 degrees Centigrade, or 7 degrees Fahrenheit in the long run, according to James Hansen and others, with at least 2 degrees C in the short run, or another 2 degrees F from the way things are right now.  

Heckuva job, humanity.

Local Markings of Climate Change These Days

I have lived in the Northeast US for all of my 68-year life, the last 40 years of it near Boston.  This year, there are so many weather changes I cannot remember ever seeing before.

It is now a day before Halloween.  For the first time ever, most of the leaves are still on the trees.  Leaf coloration only began happening in early October, the latest ever; it used to happen in mid-September. 

In late October, shortly before a playoff game was to be played in Fenway Park, there was a thunderstorm.  That has never happened in late October.  As a matter of fact, thunderstorms only used to happen around here once or twice in mid-summer – if that.  

This last summer was hot (as usual) and humid (something that has only been happening in the last 10 years.  It started in late June and went full tilt until mid-September, which it has also never done before, at a typical “the way it feels to you” pace of the upper 80s to the low 90s F.  Many days, I stayed indoors all day and night.

All year, the wind has been strong – typically 10 mph faster than even 15 years ago.  My backyard is well shielded by trees from the wind, and until the last couple of years I could look out and not see the leaves and branches moving.  This year, I typically see them moving even close to the house.

There has been a lot of rain this year.  What’s unprecedented is that most rains are hard rains, with big raindrops hammering on the roof.  Going out for a walk during a rainstorm, with wind blowing your umbrella wildly, the streets flooded an inch or three, and the wind driving the large raindrops horizontally onto your clothing, is contraindicated in most cases.  So even in the spring and fall of this year, some days I spend indoors all day and night.

And I know that from here on, on average, it all only gets worse.  100-mph nor’easter, anyone?